Bill’s Blog | February 9, 2023
I congratulate Michael Campbell and his team for bringing this event together in Vancouver (Weston Bayshore). As well as for the excellent guest speakers he brought from across North America with different expertise. I will share their leading insights into the many different asset classes and macro forecasts provided by the speakers. So let’s get started.
The first guest speaker after Michael’s introduction was James Thorne (Wellington Atlas). His title was “The pause that refreshes, the great Restructuring.”
Key Points:
- James sees a soft landing (not a major recession)
- Pause in inflation (slowing)
- A peak in rates in 2023
- We are in the “Fourth Turning.” Chaotic period.
- 12-14 months, the Fed & CB’s pause and eventually lower rates
- When CBs pause, risk assets will explode higher.
Mark Leibovit (VR Trader). Mark has a unique model for forecasting trends and an excellent track record (43 years).
Key Points:
- Significant solar activity in 2023 impacts the financial markets.
- April 2023, high probability of a Black Swan April/May cautious period
- Long-term bull on Gold, Oil and Commodities
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq peak in 2023
- Gold manipulated
- Long-term bull on Bitcoin, 88K in 3-5 years
- Likes Uranium and see it up in 2023
- Lots of Volatility in 2023 and for the next decade
Josef Schachter (Schachter Energy Research Services Inc.)
Key Points:
- We are close to the bottom in oil and gas and see the Feb/Mar risk of a downside, then reverse.
- Reasons for lengthy energy bull market
- Lack of Capital for over a decade
- Demand for Fossil Fuels increases.
- Disciplined Energy Sector (cleaned up balance sheets)
- Valuations of energy companies are historically low at 2 to 3X.
- OPEC cannot increase production much.
- Energy essential for renewable growth
- Likes select oil and NG companies in Western Canada.
Martin Armstrong (Armstrong Economics) First Session
Martin developed a supercomputer program called Socrates decades ago that evaluates 100’s millions of global data and creates accurate forecasts.
Key Points:
- 2022 was the start of the monetary DEBT crisis
- Ukraine could be the start of WW3.
- Panic cycle: April/May 2023
- “First casualty of war is TRUTH.”
- Ukraine is losing the war, and Russia is mounting a new offence of 500,000 men.
- IMF pitching they should be the head of a New World Currency.
- Many countries face a severe currency crisis due to FED policies.
- Do not own Gov’t Bonds! Governments are unable to sell their bonds.
- Socrates predicts 2032 for the GREAT RESET in the financial system.
- Socialism and many government systems are collapsing!
- Gold is a hedge against Gov’t and uncertainty.
- The US dollar is king until 2028 and then demise.
Greg Weldon (Financial Sense)
Key Points:
- Inflation is going down in 2023 (disinflation).
- High inflation is permanent.
- Massive Bond selling and few buyers
- 100% chance of Recession based on many factors
- US savings are down from 6T to 600B in the last couple of years.
- Consumer borrowing up 425B in the last 15 months
- US retail sales have been down for the last two months
- US Housing sales are down 90%, also the 50-year trend of new builds growth declines.
- BIGGEST RISK: DEBT 24 countries now have 100% or more debt to GDP, and Canada is one of them.
- Delinquencies and bankruptcies are way UP in the US!
- The US $ role in global trade is rapidly declining, with China, Russia, Saudis, BRICS and others leading this trend.
- Likes Gold as an asset class.
Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist)
Key Points:
- The four-decade bond bull market ended in 2020. “Not the end of the world, just the end of an era.”
- Inflation will be higher and longer for years.
- We are all MMTers now (Modern Monetary Theory) since 2020. Is government fiscal stimulus the new cure? Politicians love endless money printing to stay in power.
- Strategy:
- Sell Bonds
- Sell US stocks
- Buy Non-US stocks/Value stocks.
- “Markets are often slow to recognize major shifts.”
Tony Greer (TG Macro)
Key Points:
- US dollar to continue to decline in 2023
- 1st half 2023 = US rates consolidate. 2nd Half =US rates rise with inflation
- S&P is the road to nowhere
- Inverted yield curve = unpredictable economy
- NET ZERO = Energy Crisis!
- Get out of TECH, as they can no longer borrow cheap credit.
- Great Rotation to continue = Value Stocks to benefit
- Bullish long-term: Oil, Gold, base metals: copper, nickel, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, Uranium etc.
Martin Armstrong (Final session)
- 2025-2027 Biggest Geopolitical Risk: China/Taiwan, Korea’s
- Consider waiting until after April/May to add new positions. Metals may have a short-term pullback.
- Martin is very bullish on Stockmarket long-term, and Dow may reach 60,000. Michael Campbell’s comment on 60,000 Dow, “but you may be only able to buy one cup of coffee for it!”
- Stay out of bonds. Japan CB buys 98% of all Japanese bonds. Why? No one else wants them!
- Bearish on the Canadian dollar. Not a lot of upside.
- Oil & NG should go up after March to September timeframe.
- 2023 is the starting point of major civil unrest due to fossil fuel policies and high energy costs. Developing countries are the hardest hit. Green Agenda, nonsense!
- Oil could reach over $200 a barrel in the 2025-2027 war cycle.
- The Republic system is failing the US people and no longer represents the people.
Well, there you have it, an overview of the keynote speakers. I have tried my best to convey their thoughts’ intent accurately. There were many other breakout sessions with resource companies and money managers/stock pickers. The consensus was to be selective in companies with excellent management, low debt, and dividend bearers and, finally, be careful in your asset choices. Don’t hesitate to contact me if you want to discuss the conference content and what action steps you might want to consider.
PS. If you ever get the chance, I recommend you attend the World Outlook Conference to gain critical insights into the global economy and markets. Plus, you will receive some excellent investment ideas.
All the best in 2023,
Bill Westmacott, Owner
fivefoldfinancial.ca