World Outlook Conference 2024 Highlights

Bill’s Blog | February 6, 2024

This weekend, I had the privilege of attending Michael Campbell’s annual two-day event in Vancouver, BC, and I gained great insights from many top speakers in the financial world. So, this month’s Blog will cover the main themes from the keynote speakers and several of the breakout discussions done by senior management of many hosted resource companies and investment firms. The overriding theme of this year’s conference was the energy sector and the general direction of the markets in 2024. Let’s get started. 

The conference started with Victor Adair (professional trader), introducing the central theme of the energy sector, and he mainly focused on Oil & Gas and the Uranium market. Victor provided some great resources to understand these sectors: Oceanwall.com (Uranium) and the book “The Prize” by Daniel Yergen, which explains the history of the oil and gas sector. Victor also highlighted his FREE weekly commentary, called “The Trading Desk Notes” at www.VictorAdair.com 

There were over 30 breakout sessions in the two days, and I selectively attended only a handful of company presentations. If you are looking for a few investment ideas or need guidance from seasoned professionals, I recommend you carefully research and visit the company’s websites. For full disclosure, I am a shareholder of the first two company seminars I attended. To be clear, this is not investment advice but potential companies to do your homework on.

• Birchcliff Energy: they produce about 75K barrels daily and focus on Natural Gas with a 7.5% dividend.
• Surge Energy: the company’s focus is high-grade oil production in conventional fields with 25K barrels a day and an 8% dividend.
• CES Energy Services: Leading provider of consumable chemical solutions for the energy sector in North America. 2.2 Billion annual revenue with a 2.5% dividend.

I also enjoyed trends forecaster Martin Straith, who provides several services to help you understand market trends and provides guidance on many sectors and stock picks. 

Martin’s discussion was “Fueling Success: Exploring Explosive Investment Opportunities in Energy.” 

• One of Martin’s first wise comments was that we should all heed. “Always have an exit strategy before you BUY”!
• Martin discussed natural gas and commented it is very volatile, and one needs to be careful on entry and not get greedy and take profits when there. To receive Martin’s top picks in stocks and sectors, please consider purchasing his newsletter subscription at https://thetrendletter.com/about/. 
• Martin discussed nuclear power’s importance in providing stable and reliable 24/7 energy worldwide. Currently, there are 60 new reactors under construction in many nations and 110 in the planning stages. There are 436 nuclear plants currently running globally, and Canada plans to triple the number of plants in the coming years. Uranium had a massive run-up in price in 2023-2024 to $106 spot price, and Martin cautioned there would be a pullback in price before it goes higher. 
• Martin discussed that oil demand will continue to increase over the coming decades. In the last decade, there has been a lack of investment in the oil patch, which will force higher oil prices. Martin foresees oil in the $100 to $150 per barrel range in the next three years. February to July is seasonally an uptrend for oil demand and price and sees the mid-sixties as the floor and about $80 a barrel as the price ceiling in 2024 (unless we have a significant escalation in geopolitical risks). Martin’s final comment, “2024 Wild Ride and Very Volatile!”

Second, I enjoyed Andrew Ruhland of Integrated Wealth Management from Calgary. His presentation, “The World isn’t Ending: “Investment Strategies for Turbulent Times.”

• One of Andrew’s insightful comments was, “Consensus is often wrong.” 
• Opportunities Andrew likes in 2024
• Commodities
• Dividend Growers
• Corporate Fixed Income
• Private, not Public Debt
• Geopolitics & Risks 

1. Election Cycle
2. Interest Rates and Inflation
3. Social Cohesion Eroding
4. CBDCs: you will have no privacy in your finances or spending, and they are very dangerous to personal privacy.
5. WHO Pandemic Treaty: Nations will lose sovereignty over health issues, and individuals will lose their right to personal health choices. 

Andrew’s final thoughts:

• Expect volatility in the first quarter of 2024
• According to Martin Armstrong’s analysis, May 7th or 8th is a possible major transition event but did not specify what it would be. Andrew is a big fan of Martin’s work. 

Key Note Speaker: Martin Armstrong (first session), “The Road to 2032,” Armstrong Economics 

• Geopolitical Risks in 2024: Risk of More War on multiple fronts.
• War is necessary due to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. At least from the neocon’s worldview.
• War is highly inflationary.
• Worldwide Leadership Crisis 
• Martin tracks global money flows: Dow = International money, Nasdaq = Retail Investors and S&P 500 = Institutional Money
• Canada’s Trucker Protest has inspired global citizens against oppressive governments.
• Significant Political change is happening, and people are sick of corrupt politicians with evil and oppressive agendas.

Key Note Speaker: Greg Weldon, “Turn those Machines Back On.”

• Three Major Themes

1. The USA can no longer afford to be the global policeman!
2. China is dumping US treasuries, which is problematic for US financial stability.
3. Global Debt: The US must refinance 40 trillion in debt over the next three years. The US has unsustainable DEBT and is averaging 500 billion of new debt per quarter! Sixteen countries now have over one trillion in debt (Canada Included). 306 Trillion of Global debt and growing!

• USA savings are rapidly diminishing and causing problems for small US banks.
• China’s Xi announces reunification is inevitable (Taiwan).
• Tension in the China South Sea is growing between China and the Philippines, Japan and South Korea. North Korea is a strong partner with China and intimidating neighbours with missile launches.
• Will the Iran conflict in the Middle East intensify by 2025? War.
• USA manufacturing and jobs are declining.
• Significant issues with money supply M2 declining, and not seen since the Great Depression.
• The FED will have to turn on the Money Machine in 2024.
• Gold should be much, much higher and still cheap! Gold needs a catalyst to move higher.
• Final Thought: Be nimble and flexible with your investments.

Key Note Speaker: James Thorne: “Lower Rates, Bigger Bulls and Other 2024 Predictions.” Wellington Altas

• Simple Question: Do you think Central banks will blow up the system? Yes or No James believes NO.
• Canada is a poor place to invest until Trudeau is gone! James’ quote is not mine, but I do agree!
• AI and Chat GBT and Tech are BIG, but not in Canada.
• Likes Blockchain and said to buy Bitcoin.
• Housing and Inflation: These are both policy-induced inflations. Inflation increases with higher rates. BIG policy Mistakes by Central Banks and Governments. Higher rates do NOT repair supply shocks (created by government Covid policy). 
• James Wise Counsel: “You MUST invest into the Future, not look back at the Past.”
• Interest rates are going to ZERO in the near future. Bill’s Note: Many expert guests would disagree with James’ point of view.
• China is in BIG trouble.
• James Final Thoughts: 

1. Political Cycle (four years): After the election, you will have the wind at your back in the markets for two years.
2. Short-term Debt Cycle (four years): could cause economic problems.
3. Bitcoin Halving Cycle (four years) starts in April 2024 and generally brings a significant bull run for one to two years after the event.

Key Note Speaker: Josef Schachter, “The Case for Oil and Gas Stocks in 2024.” The Schachter Report

• We are in the third Energy SuperCycle.

1. First 1974-1981
2. Second 1999-2008
3. Third 2020 -2030

• Oil is going down to $65 to $68 per barrel over the next few weeks, and then the Cycle will continue to appreciate based on energy market demand and lack of capital in the sector.
• The Mid-$60s range is a break-even price for industry players and a good BUY signal.
• Josef expects a price outbreak to $90 per barrel by the end of 2024.
• Josef expects the oil price to be $125 per barrel by 2027 to 2029.
• The Middle East and China are a powder keg that will destabilize supply and price.
• LNG is finally happening in Canada, and one should be fully operational in the next year. Several more LNG plants are being proposed on the West Coast.
• Josef mentioned several dividend-bearing oil and gas companies to investigate. Inplay has an 8.9% monthly dividend; Hemisphere Energy has a 7.8% quarterly dividend; Source Rock has an 8.9% monthly dividend; Birchcliff has a 7.5% quarterly dividend; Ces Energy has a 2.5% quarterly dividend, and Total Energy Services has a 3.4% quarterly dividend. 
• To subscribe to Josef’s excellent research work and stock recommendations, please go to https://schachterenergyreport.ca/

Key Note Speaker: Ozzie Jurock, “Survive and Thrive in a Volatile Real Estate Market.” www.ozbuzz.ca Free Info

• The Big Question: Inflation or Deflation?
• “Inflation is a monetary policy”. Milton Friedman
• Inflation in hard assets is a monetary policy (Central Banks).
• Timing is crucial in purchasing Real Estate.
• Ozzie expects the FED to reduce rates by 3/4 to 1% this year. Maybe three times.
• Sales are starting to pick up in the GVRD and Fraser Valley but are nowhere near the 2020 buying frenzy.
• Many banks worldwide are in trouble, and Ozzie noted Japan, Switzerland and Germany. 
• Ozzie mentioned a few attractive real estate markets in Western Canada that provided real value, and he likes Edmonton.
• The government wants to remove your Capital Gains Exemption on your primary home.
• With the new BC policy in June 2024, you can convert your family home into a four or six-plex-BEWARE! You will lose your capital gains exemption if you do this. Ozzie mentioned you need professional tax and legal guidance before you do anything.
• One of Ozzie’s Final thoughts: Research in the USA shows that the most productive age for humans is 60 to 70. The second best time is 70 to 80, provided you have good health! Bill’s note: keep contributing and being productive as long as possible. Retirement for many is over-rated! 

Key Note Speaker: Martin Armstrong-second session: “The Next Inflection Point.”

• According to Martin, CBDCs will be introduced via one of the big five Banks in the USA and not the FED. 
• CBDCs aim to eliminate CASH, so they have 100% control of your money, and the government can receive 100% of taxes. No underground economy will exist except for barter.
• The world has become divided by the US Swift nations and the sanctioned enemy states (China, Russia, Iran, etc.) 
• US De-dollarization is complete nonsense. Until there is a new Superpower Nation, the US is the only game in town. When serious geopolitical risks exist, the world runs to the US$ and the DOW for investing. 
• Stay away from US Debt, especially long-term debt.
• The US$ will be in an uptrend till 2028, and more capital will come to the USA as WARS increases (Capital flight).
• Canadian $, Support level .64 to .70 cents, and Resistance level .77 to .80 cents.
• Oil Prices: Soft short-term, but September inflection point and will go higher. Long-term, record highs going into 2032.
• June to September could be a crisis period 2024, primarily for war expansion.
• There will be pressure on gold and oil prices to move down in 2024, but there will be BIG upswings in 2025.
• See Dow at 50,000 to 60,000 level by 2032!
• 2027-Major Crisis Cycle.
• Markets may be very volatile between July and September 2024.

Thank you for reading my Blog; I hope you found it helpful. If you need any guidance in 2024, please reach out to me. The consensus is to keep your seat belts on in 2024.

All the best in 2024,

Bill Westmacott is an insurance broker in BC and an investment specialist in multiple asset classes.