Bill’s Blog | February 10, 2022
Michael Campbell has once again brought together some very bright minds in the financial world to forecast 2022 and beyond. Reoccurring themes were the political cycle, interest rates, inflation, Fed trapped, market correction, geopolitical risks, energy crisis, commodities, the massive blockchain and digitization trend, and caution to be nibble in the markets and sectors. I will highlight the keynote speakers and summarize 3 or 4 of their main points. So let us get started.
Dr. James Thorne, Wellington Altas:
- A volatile period, the 80 to 85-year cycle. Expect a 10% market correction.
- The adoption of digitization and blockchain are both massive trends.
- This year, the Fed policy is critical, and if they make significant mistakes, it will create a real crisis in Emerging Markets and other markets.
Paul Beattie, BT Global:
- Bullish on equities 75% long and 25% short.
- Canadian resources will be strong in 2022.
- The Canadian market will outperform the US markets.
Neil McIver, McIver Capital Management:
- We are at an inflection point in the markets.
- Central banks to blame for inflation of assets. The great inflation asset party!
- Lack of trust in politicians.
- Major geopolitical issues are a concern.
Josef Schachter, Schachter Energy Report:
- The Three key issues in 2022: Fed tightening, Russia/Ukraine War and nasty US election cycle.
- Long-term energy bull, but sees short-term potential 50% correction.
- Canadian politicians dropped the ball on LNG.
- High possibility of a global recession.
Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics (session one):
- We have reached the end of the road.
- Banking problems are brewing (EU). Interest rate hikes are needed but will cause an EM and the EU crisis.
- Covid exaggerated increasing spending and pushing the “Build Back Better” agenda.
- A panic cycle of politics in 2022 and 2024. 2022 will be a Year of Political Hell!
- Martin’s AI super predictive computer program Socrates warns March 14 will be a turning point.
- Energy and climate change are shams!
Greg Weldon, Weldon Financial:
- Exposed in 2022: the covid experiment, central bankers, US dollar, 50-year bubble and meme stocks.
- Consumers are in trouble due to severe inflation and not transitory. Personal savings are shrinking fast and taking on more debt.
- The bond rates must increase.
- Must be diversified, and buy and hold is dead—huge market risks.
Mark Leibovit, The Leibovit VR Newsletter:
- The January indicator warns of a strong caution in 2022.
- Markets, earthquakes, volcanic, weather extremes due to solar activity.
- NFT’s, metaverse, the digital universe are big trends and money to be made.
- He likes many commodities but could be a correction this year and pick up in the second half.
- Fed hands tied and cannot raise rates much.
Eric Nuttall, Nine Point Partners:
- The energy sector is just getting started—$ 100 per barrel by next year.
- Lack of investment in oil and gas since 2014. There is a massive disconnect between politicians and energy reality with the ESG agenda.
- Supermajors production is flat.
- Look for companies with free cash flow yields, long reserves and excellent balance sheets.
- Energy demand to grow for the next 10 to 15 years.
Ozzie Jurock, ozziejurock.com (Real-Estate)
- Massive hard asset inflation.
- Timing is critical in real estate. FOMO is extreme.
- Vancouver forecast 1 million more people by 2035.
- Average BC house now $980,000.
- Unit sales down, prices UP.
- Lock in rates as they are going up.
- There could be a black swan.
Brent Holliday, Garibaldi Capital:
- Tech wreck short-term—significant drops in Nasqua in 2021 and early 2022.
- Canada is strong with tech companies and lots of private capital flowing into this sector.
- Tech themes for the next five years: Web 3.0, blockchain and DEFI applications, clean energy, software, property and AG tech.
Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics (2nd session):
- February strategic turning point. Panic cycle.
- Risks with Russia and China. Putin is the most intelligent guy in the room.
- People are losing confidence in political leaders worldwide.
- Socrates predicts governments will collapse by 2032.
- AG and oil are going higher mainly due to incompetent government policies.
Expert Trader Panel: Victor Adair, Don Vialoux & Tyler Bolhorn
- Markets figure covid is over.
- Interest rate hikes would kill the Cdn. Housing market.
- Election and inflations are significant factors in 2022.
- What was working in 2021 may not work in 2022.
- Do not take on too much risk and keep time frames short.
- See’s oil and gas going higher till May, then correction.
- April till June fear time and see better opportunities in the second half of the year.
- There could be a significant downside if major trendlines are broken.
- Bitcoin, look for crash and bottom feeders.
- FOMO is the most significant risk. Everyone is brilliant in a bull market, and in 2022, not so.
- Essential: No lousy trading habits.
Well, there you have it, my summary of the World Outlook Financial Conference. I took extensive notes from the conference, and I did my best to reflect each person’s insights accurately. My sense is to be cautious in 2022 and protect your capital. I will be adjusting my portfolio in the next few months, and I recommend you consider doing the same. If you need a second opinion, please reach out to me at www.fivefoldfinancial.ca.
All the best in 2022,
Bill Westmacott, Owner